Monday, August 18, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Aug 12 2325 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 August 2008

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels through the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through 07 August. Activity increased to unsettled levels late on 08 August. A further increase to minor storm levels occurred on 09 August. Activity decreased to active levels on 10 August with minor storm levels observed at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity during 09 - 10 August was due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS). A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) occurred on 09 August. Interplanetary magnetic field changes associated with the CIR included increased Bt (peak 20 nT at 09/0510 UTC) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (minimum -12 nT at 09/0411 UTC). The HSS began late on 09 August and continued through the rest of the period with a peak velocity of 688 km/sec observed at 09/2000 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 August - 08 September 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 13 - 23 August and 07 - 08 September.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during 13 - 15 August. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 16 - 20 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 21 August - 03 September. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on 04 September. A further increase to active to minor storm levels is expected on 05 September due to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during 06 - 08 September as the high-speed stream subsides.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Aug 12 2325 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Aug 12
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Aug 13 66 5 2
2008 Aug 14 66 5 2
2008 Aug 15 66 5 2
2008 Aug 16 66 8 3
2008 Aug 17 66 10 3
2008 Aug 18 66 10 3
2008 Aug 19 66 15 4
2008 Aug 20 66 10 3
2008 Aug 21 66 5 2
2008 Aug 22 66 5 2
2008 Aug 23 66 5 2
2008 Aug 24 66 5 2
2008 Aug 25 66 5 2
2008 Aug 26 66 5 2
2008 Aug 27 66 5 2
2008 Aug 28 66 5 2
2008 Aug 29 66 5 2
2008 Aug 30 66 5 2
2008 Aug 31 66 5 2
2008 Sep 01 66 5 2
2008 Sep 02 66 5 2
2008 Sep 03 66 5 2
2008 Sep 04 66 8 3
2008 Sep 05 66 20 5
2008 Sep 06 66 10 3
2008 Sep 07 66 8 3
2008 Sep 08 66 5 2
(NOAA)