Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2014 Mar 17 0446 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html

                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 March 2014

Solar activity was at moderate levels to begin the week. On 10 March, Region 2002 (S19, L=326 class/area Ekc/380 on 13 Mar) produced three M-class events, the largest an M1 at 10/1528 UTC. Region 1996 (N14, L=052 class/area Eac/220 on 12 Mar) also produced an M1/Sf that day at 10/2300 UTC followed by an M3/1f at 11/0348 UTC. Region 1991 (S24, L=093 class/area Eki/370 on 02 Mar) produced
an M1 flare at 11/1207 UTC. Region 1996 produced two more M-class events on 12 Mar, to include an M9/Sb at 12/2234 UTC, bringing activity to high levels for that day. Moderate levels returned on 13 Mar when Region 1996 produced an M1 at 13/1919 UTC before rotating around the west limb. Solar activity was at low levels for the remainder of the period. The largest C-class event recorded during that time was a C7/Sf at 16/0645 UTC from Region 2003 (N05, L=013 class/area Eac/200 on 15 Mar). Between 13/0001 - 0154 UTC an approximately 6 degree long filament, centered near S18W60, lifted off the disk in SDO/AIA imagery but was determined not to be geoeffective. A 14 degree filament centered near N12E17 disappeared between 14/1454 - 1746 UTC, but was also determined not to be Earth-directed. Finally, a 30 degree filament centered near S22E50 erupted between 16/0235 - 0323 UTC but model data indicated it was too far south of the ecliptic to be geoeffective. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with the exception of 13 Mar. Minor storm levels were reached in the first synoptic period followed by active and then unsettled conditions for the first half of the day due to a solar sector boundary change and a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions returned my midday 13 Mar and quiet levels prevailed for the rest of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 March - 12 April 2014

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity through 26 Mar. Moderate levels are likely with a slight chance for X-class activty from 26 Mar through the remainder of the period as old Region 1996 (N14, L=052) returns to the visible disk followed by the return of Region 2002 (S19, L=326). 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 - 18 Mar due to anticipated CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 19 - 29 Mar. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 30 Mar to 01 Apr due to recurrent negative Bz. The remainder of the period is expected to be quiet
with the exception of 09 Apr, which is expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions due to effects from a recurrent CH HS.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
Issued: 2014 Mar 17 0446 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

            27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
               Issued 2014-03-17
UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2014 Mar 17     135           8          3
2014 Mar 18     135           8          3
2014 Mar 19     135           5          2
2014 Mar 20     135           5          2
2014 Mar 21     145           5          2
2014 Mar 22     150           5          2
2014 Mar 23     155           5          2
2014 Mar 24     150           5          2
2014 Mar 25     150           5          2
2014 Mar 26     150           5          2
2014 Mar 27     155           5          2
2014 Mar 28     155           5          2
2014 Mar 29     160           5          2
2014 Mar 30     165           8          3
2014 Mar 31     165           8          3
2014 Apr 01     160           8          3
2014 Apr 02     160           5          2
2014 Apr 03     155           5          2
2014 Apr 04     150           5          2
2014 Apr 05     150           5          2
2014 Apr 06     150           5          2
2014 Apr 07     150           5          2
2014 Apr 08     145           5          2
2014 Apr 09     145          10          3
2014 Apr 10     140           5          2
2014 Apr 11     140           5          2
2014 Apr 12     135           5          2
(NOAA)