Monday, September 08, 2014

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Sep 08 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 September 2014

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Moderate levels were first observed with an M2/Sf flare at 03/1354 UTC from Region 2152 (S15, L=206, class/area Eki/310 on 04 September). An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 03/1400 UTC but was determined to not contain an Earth-directed component. Moderate levels were again reached with an M1/Sf flare at 06/1709 UTC from Region 2157 (S14,L=98, class/area Ekc/540 on 06 September). The majority of the C-class flare activity during the rest of the period was primarily from Region 2152 and 2157. A 44 degree long filament, centered near 32W14, erupted between 02/1300-1600 UTC and did contain a geo effective component. WSA/ENLIL modeling of the event showed an arrival time early to midday on 06 September. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced between 02 September and 07 September as a result of a far-sided event that occurred on 02 September, but remained below alert level thresholds throughout the period. A peak value 9.7 pfu
was reached at 06/0740 UTC. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 01-05 September, moderate levels on 06 September, and returned to normal background levels. A peak value of 6,110 pfu was reached at 02/1620 UTC. 

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during the period. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred from 01-04 September as a result of coronal high-speed stream influence that ranged between approximately 400-450 km/s. Quiet conditions returned on 05 September. Solar wind conditions were once again enhanced on 06 September due to a solar sector boundary crossing that was observed at 06/0434 UTC. Total field measurements increased from 5 nT to 11 nT while the Bz component went briefly south to -9 nT. The total field became further enhanced to 12 nT and the Bz component deflected southward to -7 nT for approximately nine hours after midday on 06 September as the 02 September CME began to influence the Earth's magnetic field. A sudden impulse of 63 nT was observed at the College magnetometer at 06/1525 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled conditions for the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 September - 04 October 2014

Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater) until 16 Sep when Regions 2157 and 2158 (N16, L=88, class/area Dkc/380 on 07 September) depart the visible disk. For the rest of the period, Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares due to the return of old Regions 2146 (N07, L=344), 2149 (N09, L=284), and 2151 (S08, L=253) 

There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from 08-17 Sep due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2157 and 2158. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels between 11-14 September and again on 27 September through 04 October due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach quiet to unsettled levels on 08, 10-11, 13, and 28-30 September while unsettled to active levels are expected from 25-27 September due to recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream effects. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 08 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2014-09-08
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2014 Sep 08     140          10          3
2014 Sep 09     145           5          2
2014 Sep 10     150           8          3
2014 Sep 11     150           8          3
2014 Sep 12     150           5          2
2014 Sep 13     150           8          3
2014 Sep 14     150           5          2
2014 Sep 15     155           5          2
2014 Sep 16     140           5          2
2014 Sep 17     145           5          2
2014 Sep 18     140           5          2
2014 Sep 19     145           5          2
2014 Sep 20     145           5          2
2014 Sep 21     150           5          2
2014 Sep 22     145           5          2
2014 Sep 23     135           5          2
2014 Sep 24     130           5          2
2014 Sep 25     130          18          4
2014 Sep 26     125          15          4
2014 Sep 27     125          15          4
2014 Sep 28     130          12          3
2014 Sep 29     145          12          3
2014 Sep 30     145          10          3
2014 Oct 01     150           5          2
2014 Oct 02     145           5          2
2014 Oct 03     140           5          2
2014 Oct 04     135           5          2
(NOAA)