Monday, December 22, 2014

Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 22-Dec 24 2014

            Dec 22     Dec 23     Dec 24
00-03UT        5 (G1)     3          3     
03-06UT        5 (G1)     2          2     
06-09UT        4          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        3          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        3          2          2     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms periods are expected on 22 Dec due to effects from the 18 Dec coronal mass ejection (CME).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014

              Dec 22  Dec 23  Dec 24
S1 or greater   30%     30%     25%

Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists due to flare potential from Regions 2241 (S10W39) and 2242 (S18W63).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 22 2014 0149 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014

              Dec 22        Dec 23        Dec 24
R1-R2           85%           85%           75%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a
chance for R3 (Strong) activity due to flare potential from Regions 2241
(S10W39) and 2242 (S18W63).

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 22 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2014-12-22
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2014 Dec 22     205          22          5
2014 Dec 23     200           8          3
2014 Dec 24     185           8          3
2014 Dec 25     175           5          2
2014 Dec 26     170           5          2
2014 Dec 27     175           8          3
2014 Dec 28     175          10          3
2014 Dec 29     175           8          3
2014 Dec 30     160           8          3
2014 Dec 31     160          10          3
2015 Jan 01     150          10          3
2015 Jan 02     140          12          4
2015 Jan 03     140          25          5
2015 Jan 04     145          15          4
2015 Jan 05     150          10          3
2015 Jan 06     155           8          3
2015 Jan 07     165           8          3
2015 Jan 08     170          10          4
2015 Jan 09     175          10          4
2015 Jan 10     180           8          3
2015 Jan 11     185           8          3
2015 Jan 12     185           5          2
(NOAA)