Monday, December 29, 2014

Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 30-Jan 01 2015

            Dec 30     Dec 31     Jan 01
00-03UT        4          3          3     
03-06UT        4          2          2     
06-09UT        4          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        3          3          3     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely due to continued
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2015

              Dec 30  Dec 31  Jan 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2015

              Dec 30        Dec 31        Jan 01
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
exists due to flare potential from Region 2251 (S09E25).

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 29 0334 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2014-12-29
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2014 Dec 29     130          12          3
2014 Dec 30     130           8          3
2014 Dec 31     125          11          3
2015 Jan 01     125          11          3
2015 Jan 02     120          13          4
2015 Jan 03     120          28          5
2015 Jan 04     120          17          4
2015 Jan 05     125          15          4
2015 Jan 06     140           9          3
2015 Jan 07     145           6          2
2015 Jan 08     150          21          5
2015 Jan 09     150           9          3
2015 Jan 10     155          11          4
2015 Jan 11     160          15          4
2015 Jan 12     170           8          3
2015 Jan 13     175           8          3
2015 Jan 14     180           5          2
2015 Jan 15     180           8          3
2015 Jan 16     180           9          3
2015 Jan 17     175          14          4
2015 Jan 18     165          20          4
2015 Jan 19     155          13          4
2015 Jan 20     140          17          4
2015 Jan 21     135          12          4
2015 Jan 22     130          17          4
2015 Jan 23     125           7          2
2015 Jan 24     125          11          4
(NOAA)